Denial about Climate Change Contributes to Long Emergency

[liveonearth]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/08/opinion/08friedman.html?_r=1

Comments

[ford-prefect42.livejournal.com]

I figure it depends where they live. For the record here, I am a "doomer", I see a very wide variety of subjects on which things are going very very poorly. I ust don't consider climate change to be particularly one of them, because even the more alarmist of the actual scientists are not actually predicting anything more than inconvenient, a 4 degree rise over the next century would *not* be particularly catastrophic. Best odds IMO is that the US and Europe collapse into civil war in the next decade or less. I believe this will be because of a combination of peak oil, development style preventing adaptation to that (in the US), and a lot of political devotion to avoiding economic/physical realities. The plus side is that that should free up around 38 out of the 40 MB/D of oil that the US and europe currently consume, which should allow China and India to develop apace, and for the tech levels to advance enough to make alternatives viable.

[liveonearth.livejournal.com]

And where they live is inextricable from their wealth or lack thereof. When I speak of global warming, I do not mean to imply that I think it is the reason for our impending trouble. It is one small variable and it is uncertain exactly how it will play out. Climate change is one of hundreds of variables that add up to what Kunstler named The Long Emergency, a "perfect storm" of challenges that will add up to generations of hardship for our species. Of course, more in some places and less in others, as you suggest...

[ford-prefect42.livejournal.com]

Fair enough. I agree with that.